By Professor Noruzzaman

Opening Remarks

Distinguished colleagues, guests, and participants,

I welcome all of you to this special discussion session on China’s engagement and influence in South Asia. This is a vast and complex subject, with hundreds of books, journal articles, and policy briefs written on it. My aim today is to offer a concise overview, structured around a few key themes.

Setting the Stage

China, as the world’s second-largest economy, is not only a neighbor to South Asia—it is a neighbor to the entire globe. Its growing economic might and strategic outreach have made it a central actor in shaping the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of South Asia.

Just two or three decades ago, China’s influence in the region was limited. But today, with its rapid economic growth and global ambitions, China has become the primary source of public goods—loans, project financing, FDI, and technological support—for India’s smaller neighbors. In contrast, India falls significantly behind in these areas, giving China a strategic edge.

This growing influence has intensified competition with India, which has traditionally seen itself as South Asia’s natural leader. The India-centric balance of power is shifting, and many South Asian nations are now leaning toward China. The ongoing contest between Beijing and New Delhi to win the hearts and minds of smaller South Asian states is a defining feature of the region’s strategic dynamics.

Conceptual Framework

To understand this transformation, we must revisit three key concepts:

• Hard Power: Military strength, coercive diplomacy, alliances, and deterrence.
• Soft Power: The ability to attract and influence through culture, education, and economic generosity. Joseph Nye defines it as shaping preferences through appeal and attraction.
• Influence: A complex and contested concept, often measured through demographic size, geography, economic strength, aid, and cultural ties.

China’s Growing Engagement in South Asia

1. Infrastructure Diplomacy and Economic Ties

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is its flagship tool for regional engagement. Except for India and Bhutan, all South Asian countries are BRI members.

• China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Initially valued at $46 billion, now revised to $62 billion.
• Bangladesh-China Strategic Partnership: Following a 2016 agreement, China committed $38.05 billion in aid.
• Other Beneficiaries: Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives also receive Chinese assistance, albeit on a smaller scale.

2. Trade and Investment

China is now the largest trading partner of all South Asian states, including India. However, trade imbalances are stark:

• Bangladesh exports less than $1 billion to China but imports over $20 billion.
• Similar gaps exist in Pakistan and other South Asian economies.

3. Strategic Access to the Indian Ocean

Despite India’s objections, China has secured access to key ports:

• Gwadar (Pakistan)
• Hambantota (Sri Lanka)
• Chittagong (Bangladesh)
• Kyaukpyu (Myanmar)

Military and Security Engagement

China’s military ties are strongest with Pakistan, followed by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

• Pakistan: Joint production of JF-17 fighter jets, missile systems, and indirect support for its nuclear program.
• Bangladesh: Major arms supplier, including submarines, frigates, and fighter jets.
• Sri Lanka: Receives aid and training; Chinese naval ships occasionally dock at its ports.

Hard Power Tools

• BRI: Though often seen as soft power, its geopolitical motives also classify it as hard power.
• Defense Diplomacy: Training, technology transfer, and military infrastructure support.
• Border Power Projection: Military deployments along the Himalayan corridor and disputed territories like Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh.

Soft Power Tools

1. Economic Statecraft

China’s generous aid, loans, and concessional finance generate goodwill. In Bangladesh, public approval for China stands at 85–90%, while pro-India sentiment has declined sharply.

2. Scholarships and Cultural Diplomacy

• India: 50,000 scholarships in 2023, half to South Asian students.
• China: 500,000 scholarships, with Pakistani students dominating.

3. Media Influence

Chinese media outlets like Xinhua, CCTV, and China Radio International now broadcast in Bengali, Hindi, and Urdu. They fund journalist training and media tours to promote pro-China narratives.

4. Heritage and Diaspora Diplomacy

China funds Buddhist heritage projects in Nepal and Sri Lanka, enhancing its cultural appeal.

Why India Struggles to Resist China’s Influence

1. Asymmetry of Power

• China’s economy: $18 trillion
• India’s economy: $3 trillion

2. Economic Models

• China: State-controlled capitalism enables rapid project execution.
• India: Bureaucratic hurdles and slower pro-market reforms hinder progress.

3. Geostrategic Encirclement

India perceives Pakistan and Bangladesh as pillars of China’s South Asia strategy, contributing to its encirclement.

4. Reactive Diplomacy

India often responds late. For example, BRI launched in 2013; India’s Sagarmala came two years later.

5. Resource Constraints

India lacks the capacity to match China’s scale of aid and investment.

6. Limited Regional Acceptability

India is seen as overbearing, with bilateral conflicts across South Asia. Its coercive diplomacy—such as the 2015 blockade on Nepal—damages its image.

7. Dysfunctional Regional Mechanisms

SAARC has been ineffective since 2014. India now prefers sub-regional groupings like BIMSTEC and BBIN, which lack the capacity to deliver meaningful results.

Conclusion

South Asia is now a contested space in global geopolitics. The US, India, and China are all vying for influence. China’s strategic and economic outreach has reshaped the region, while India and the US attempt to contain its rise.

Thank you very much for listening. I hope this presentation has offered some preliminary insights into China’s growing footprint in South Asia.

Watch the full speech on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-w7s1QqCHE&t=2796s